【分析师投稿】对话AvaTrade首席分析师：近期黄金、原油、股市全解析

　　AvaTrade分析师投稿

　　AvaTrade 首席分析师：Naeem Aslam

　　由于投资者对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的决定感到不安，欧洲和美国的期货交易几乎持平。俄罗斯军事行动的消息传出后，世界各地的股市纷纷下跌，投资者纷纷抛出股票。

　　但投资者应记住，尽管股市波动可能在短期内上升，但这类事件通常会产生短期后果，因此，如果股市波动之后没有出现衰退，就应被视为投资机会。且美国经济进入衰退的可能性非常小，各企业报告呈现出强劲的收益，而新冠疫情的传播也得到了控制。

　　上周五最重要的财经数据是核心个人消费支出(PCE)数据，该数据显示了不包括食品和能源在内的商品和服务价格的变化。过去几个月，美国的通货膨胀一直在迅速增长，原因是消费者需求激增，以及世界各国面临的供应链瓶颈。此外，这也是美联储在决定未来货币政策时考虑的最重要因素之一。

　　除了通胀数据外，股票交易者还需要分析耐用品订单数据和修正后的消费者信心数据，以了解预测美国经济未来几个月的表现。

　　股票市场

　　在俄罗斯军队对乌克兰采取军事行动后，美国对俄罗斯实施了更多的制裁，旨在对其经济施加压力，并将其排除在全球经济之外。新的限制措施包括阻止俄罗斯五大银行获得他国货币。

　　然而，该国的原油供应迄今尚未受到制裁。除了实施制裁，华盛顿还批准在德国部署更多部队，以防止入侵蔓延到其他欧洲地区。同样，其他北约国家也加强了其防御举措。

　　由于俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突，以及西方国家可能加大制裁力度，股票交易者现在正准备迎接消费者价格可能飙升和全球经济增长受到抑制的局面。这是因为俄罗斯和乌克兰都是主要的粮食出口国，而且俄罗斯是欧盟最大的石油供应国。因此，任何这些大宗商品供应链的中断，都很可能会大幅推高通胀。

　　因此，最紧迫的问题是，美联储将如何应对俄罗斯的入侵及其对通胀的潜在影响。在这场冲突之前，通胀已经在迅速上升。这些事态发展所带来的不确定性可能使股市在短期内波动。

　　原油

　　上周四，俄罗斯开始入侵乌克兰的消息传出后，原油价格飙升，布伦特原油价格自2014年以来首次突破每桶100美元。然而，在有报道称俄罗斯没有对原油供应实施制裁后，油价下跌。

　　然而，俄罗斯对能源供应施加更多限制的风险，可能会使原油价格在未来几周出现波动。这是因为俄罗斯不仅是世界上最大的石油和天然气生产国之一，也是世界上第二大天然气生产国。

　　黄金

　　俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突推高了黄金价格，因为投资者正寻求保护，使自己的财富不受股市波动和消费价格上涨的影响。

　　如今，除了地缘政治紧张局势外，金价可能对通胀数据也很敏感，因为通胀数据走高，只会鼓励美联储坚持今年加息的计划。其结果是，通胀数据可能会限制金价的大幅上涨，因为随着利率上升，持有无息黄金的机会成本也会上升，从而降低了黄金对投资者的吸引力。

　　European and US futures are trading almost flat as investors grapple with Russia‘s decision to invade Ukraine. Following reports of Russia’s military actions, equity markets around the world fell, with investors simply placing sell orders .

　　Investors should keep in mind that, while stock market volatility may rise in the short term, such events typically have short-term consequences and, as a result, should be viewed as buying opportunities as long as they are not followed by a recession. The United States economy entering a recession is highly unlikely, given that companies are reporting strong earnings and the spread of coronavirus cases is under control.

　　The most important event of the day is the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data to be released today, which shows the change in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. Inflation has been growing rapidly in the United States over the past few months, owing to a surge in consumer demand and supply chain bottlenecks being faced by nations around the world.

　　Moreover, it is one of the most important factors taken into consideration by the Federal Reserve while deciding on its upcoming monetary policies. If the numbers come in above expectations, it will give the Fed all the more reason to stick with its monetary tightening policies and raise interest rates aggressively going forward.

　　In addition to the inflation numbers, stock traders will also be digesting durable goods orders data and revised consumer sentiment numbers to understand how the American economy is likely to perform over the next few months.

　　Stock Market

　　Following the military action undertaken by Russian forces in Ukraine, the United States of America imposed more sanctions on Russia, aiming to put its economy under pressure and exclude it from the global economy. The new restrictions include steps to hinder five big banks in Russia from accessing foreign currency.

　　However, crude oil supplies from the country have not been sanctioned as of yet. In addition to the sanctions put in place, Washington has also approved more forces to be placed in Germany so that the invasion does not spill over to other European regions as well. Similarly, other NATO countries have also ramped up their security in Europe.

　　Stock traders are now bracing for a potential surge in consumer prices and a curb in global economic growth because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a probable ramp up in sanctions by western nations. This is due to the fact that both Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters, and Russia is the largest supplier of oil in the European Union. As a result, any disruptions in the supply chain of these commodities will almost certainly drive inflation much higher.

　　As a result, the most pressing question is how the Fed will react to the Russian invasion and its potential impact on inflation, which was already rising rapidly prior to the conflict. The uncertainty resulting from these developments is likely to make stock markets volatile in the short term.

　　Oil

　　Crude oil prices jumped following news that Russia had started invading Ukraine on Thursday, pushing the price of Brent above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. However, oil prices dipped following reports that sanctions were not placed on crude oil supply from Russia.

　　However, the risk of more restrictions being placed on energy supply from Russia is likely to make crude oil prices volatile over the next few weeks. This is because Russia is among the worlds biggest producers of oil and natural gas. It is also the second-largest producer of natural gas in the world.

　　Gold

　　The Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving up the price of gold as investors seek to protect their wealth from volatile equity markets and rising consumer prices. Today, the price of gold is likely to be sensitive to inflation numbers in addition to geopolitical tensions, as a higher reading will only encourage the Fed to stick to its plan of raising interest rates this year.

　　As a result, inflation readings will likely cap significant upside movement in gold prices because, as interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold also rises, making it less appealing to investors.

　　Naeem Aslam

　　AvaTrade 首席分析师

　　Naeem是一名屡获殊荣的分析师(2010年10月的爱尔兰经纪人奖等)。他能够积极地利用各种市场趋势，分析预判，同时兼具高度的上进心、极强的数字分析能力、人际交往能力，并有能力在专业高度上沟通发表其见解。Naeem的专长包括:投资、投资组合管理、客户服务、合规和法规、股票和债券市场。