人工智能或缓解通货膨胀问题

　　原文发表于美国时间2022-2-22

　　您最近在超市购物时被价签上的价格震惊到了吗？美国的购物者很难不会为物价的上涨所惊讶。

　　通货膨胀率飙涨，不过我认为微软公司提供了未来解决通货膨胀上涨的一个解决方案：人工智能。

　　我预期我们会在第三季度的某个时候观察到物价的下降。

　　人工智能的快速替代

　　届时我们就知道了，不过我认为一件事情是确定的：通货膨胀将是暂时性的。在不久的将来的某个时候，我们可能会为通货紧缩而想尽办法并期望能有更多的通货膨胀。

　　人工智能将在降低物价方面发挥重要的作用。参照《华尔街日报》近期的一篇头条新闻报道：“微软财务部门未新增招聘名额，因人工智能、机器人与其他技术”

　　一句话概括，微软公司让人工智能替代了人工的工作。

　　微软公司是世界最大的公司之一，并且随着云计算业务的增长而变得日益庞大。

　　微软公司的Azure云平台在市场份额上仅次于亚马逊的AWS云平台。微软公司每年的销售额达2000亿美元，并且增速没有出现放缓的迹象。

　　生产率提升

　　不过，微软公司的财务部门仅有约5000人，并且人员数额已经维持多年未变。微软公司通过使用配置人工智能提高了其团队成员的生产力。微软公司仍有小部分员工使用电子表格。该公司的首席财务官对《华尔街日报》开玩笑说“他们仍很喜欢Excel”。不过微软公司可以从每一个雇员身上挤出更多的工作量，因为人工智能已经可以完成大量繁重的分析工作。

　　机器的力量

　　微软公司是一家科技公司，所以在人工智能提高工作效率方面领先是有合理性的。不过全世界各地的非科技领域的重要公司也在做同样的努力。

　　疫情的流行与随后出现的劳动力短缺导致了一种新的紧迫感产生。

　　人工智能在工作中的应用不仅仅是影响到美国白领阶层。星巴克通过增加网络订单的服务从咖啡师那里压榨出了更多的产量。星巴克通过流水线的方式制作咖啡等饮料，这会让亨利·福特都感到自豪（注：福特发明了流水线生产法）。

　　过去几年因为疫情的影响而影响到了数据。不过快餐店员工数量多年来一直在下降，每家快餐店的员工数从2006年的约17人下降至2018年的15人。

　　机器人服务员向你提高巨无霸汉堡或者可乐续杯的服务可能还需要一段时间才能实现，不过趋势是很明确的：机器人技术正在取代人力，高通货膨胀率是一个重要的推动因素。

　　复杂的通货膨胀

　　我可以就此话题写一本书。不过我确信真写出来的话，看这本书草稿所需的人力会比10年前少得多。

　　通货膨胀是一个复杂的现象，经济学家对于导致通货膨胀的原因并没有一致的结论。能一致的是，当商品供不应求时，价格会上涨。目前，疫情导致的劳动力短缺限制了供应，疫情下跌供应链瓶颈就源自于此。

　　我认为短期内供应链短缺的问题就会自行解决。我相信以长期的眼光来看，我们面临着劳动力与资本的富余，以及两者价格更低的局面。

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　　这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Charles Sizemore。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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