 微信

【A50 Weekly Report】Market sentiment tends to be cautious

来源外汇天眼 01-05 14:27

currentVersion111222170009FFgh_53f99b8548dc致力于打造客户可以长远信赖的财富管理平台Opinion: Foreign: New strains threaten theworld

　　currentVersion

　　111

　　222170009FF

　　gh_53f99b8548dc

　　致力于打造客户可以长远信赖的财富管理平台

　　Opinion: Foreign: New strains threaten theworld + Taper accelerates as expected. (1) Global epidemic: In the last week of2021, the number of newly diagnosed cases worldwide has risen rapidly, settinga record since the epidemic, with Europe accounting for more than half. As ofJanuary 1, 2022, there have been an average of 1.394 million newly diagnosedcases worldwide every day, a record since the epidemic. By country, the numberof new diagnoses in Europe and the United States has broken new records everyday, of which Europe accounted for 53%. Compared with the previous week(December 25), the average number of new diagnoses per day in the UnitedStates, France, Italy, and Spain doubled. The number of new diagnoses in theUnited States was as high as 580,000 in a single day. The week-on-week ratio inthe United Kingdom nearly doubled (98%), and only Germany Has fallen back. (2)U.S. economy: The Federal Reserve decided to accelerate the pace of reduction atthe December FOMC meeting to promote the tightening of U.S. monetary policy.Current inflation continues to rise and the spread of Omicron mutant strainsmay exacerbate global supply tensions, leading the world's major central banksto act quickly to gradually withdraw from the loose monetary policy since theepidemic. A potential market concern is whether the tightening of globalliquidity will trigger capital outflows in the context of the already weakglobal risk appetite.

　　Domestic: (1) Macro liquidity: The relay ofthe policy of stabilizing growth is underway, and it will take time to form ajoint force. The first quarter data will fully reflect the effect of the policyjoint force, and market confidence will also be quickly restored. (2) Marketliquidity: Last week, the net inflow of northbound funds and the balance of thetwo financial institutions increased, but the positions of stock fundsdeclined.

　　In terms of A50, the market was dominatedby shocks and declines last week. Themes such as digital currency, blockchain,traditional Chinese medicine, and meta-universe were more popular, and themarket continued to structure the market. The three major sectors of the A50diverged. The food and beverage sector and the banking sector fell, while thenon-bank financial sector rose. From a policy perspective: the centralgovernment's policy setting for stable growth and future policy synergy willpromote economic recovery beyond expectations, boost market confidence, andsuperimpose the new year's market, and ample market liquidity will support theincremental capital relay. From the perspective of valuation, A50price-to-earnings ratio PE and price-to-book ratio PB are near the average.From a technical point of view, A50 fell to the previous high and is currentlyat an important support level. On the whole, the index is expected to reboundafter the adjustment. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines, and activistinvestors suggest that they can do more on dips.

　　Figure 1 List of stock indexes ups anddowns since the beginning of the year

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　1. Technical analysis

　　From a technical analysis point of view,A50 is at the monthly support level, which is the previous high point, and weshould pay attention to whether this point can rebound.

　　2.the trend of the plate

　　Figure 1 Trends of the three major sectorsof the FTSE China A50 Index

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Last week, A50 fell mainly due to shocks.The banking sector fell 0.7%, non-bank financials rose 0.95%, food and beveragefell 4.2%, and the A50 futures 2112 contract fell 1.21%.

　　Banking and non-banking financial sectorsare in a valuation depression with little room for decline, while food andbeverages are affected by demand growth at the end of the year and a sharpretracement in the first half of the year, and they do not have the opportunityto continue to fall sharply. At the end of the year, the A50 index has a highprobability of bottoming out and rebounding.

　　3. Funding

　　In terms of public offerings, compared withlast week, the position of equity funds has declined, and the shares of newlyestablished partial equity funds have decreased; compared with last week, thenet inflow of land stocks and trading activity has increased for northboundfunds; compared with last week, leveraged funds, compared with last week, Thebalance of the two financial institutions increased, and transaction activityincreased; industrial capital and industrial capital transaction activity increased,with leisure services and overall net holdings taking the lead.

　　4. Index valuation

　　In the past five years, the average valueof PE is 13.9 times and the average value of PB is 1.95 times. But since 2019,its valuation has rebounded from a low level and has been rising all the way.It is currently 14.62 times PE, which is near the average; 2.09 times PB, whichis near the 6-year average. Compared with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes, theROE of A50 is larger, and its current value is 14.3.

　　Calculation formula:

　　price-earnings ratioPE(TTM)=1/SUM(Wi/PEi), price-to-book ratio PB(TTM)=1/SUM(Wi/PBi), ROE=PB/PE.

　　Figure 3 PE of each index from 2015 topresent

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Figure 4 A50 price-to-earnings ratio PE

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Figure 5 A50 P/B ratio PB

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Figure 6 A50 ROE

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　5. trading strategy

　　Unilateral strategy: In terms of A50, themarket was dominated by shocks and declines last week. Themes such as digitalcurrency, blockchain, traditional Chinese medicine, and meta universe were morepopular, and the market continued to structure the market. The three majorsectors of the A50 diverged. The food and beverage sector and the bankingsector fell, while the non-bank financial sector rose. From a policyperspective: the central government's policy setting for stable growth andfuture policies will promote economic recovery beyond expectations, boostmarket confidence, and superimpose the new year's market, ample marketliquidity to support incremental capital relay. From the perspective ofvaluation, A50 price-to-earnings ratio PE and price-to-book ratio PB are nearthe average. From a technical point of view, A50 fell to the previous high andis currently at an important support level. On the whole, the index is expectedto rebound after the adjustment. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines,and activist investors suggest that they can do more on dips.

　　6. Focus this week

　　Table 1 Follow this week

　　Data source: HGNH International, Golden Tendata

　　7. risk warning

　　(1) Domestic policy is looser thanexpected; (2) The overseas new crown epidemic is out of control; (3) The upwardpressure on inflation has increased; (4) The yields of major overseascountries treasury bonds have risen too fast.

　　Disclaimer

　　The information in this report is derived from publicly available information. Although we believe in the reliability of the source of the information in the report, our company does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. Nor does it guarantee that the opinions and suggestions made by our company will not undergo any changes. Under any circumstances, the information in our company‘s report, the opinions and suggestions expressed, and the data, tools and materials contained in it cannot be used as yours. The absolute basis for futures trading. Since the report was compiled with the analyst’s personal views and opinions and analysis methods, any inconsistencies and different conclusions with other information released by HGNH International will not avoid doubts. The views contained in this report do not represent The position of HG

　　*The above content is translated by Google, the information provided is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice, and the Company makes no representations or warranties, direct or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.