美国和欧洲的期货交易继续剧烈波动。在乌克兰持续不断的战争局势让交易者紧张不安之际，市场在一天内出现几次180度大转弯几乎已经成为一种常态。油价似乎并没有从最近的高位回落;然而，一些重要因素，如伊朗石油很快就会重返市场，成为人们关注的焦点。由于交易者更愿意将资金投入风险较低的资产，市场对贵金属的需求有所回升，俄罗斯和乌克兰战争也对央行在全球范围内的货币政策决定产生了影响。
地缘政治紧张局势
俄罗斯军队在过去的24小时内加强了对乌克兰的攻击，乌克兰东部的城镇现在都处于炮火之下。对于交易者和投资者来说，这是又一个不确定的时刻，因为每个人都在关注一个城市——基辅。当俄罗斯开始对基辅发动全面进攻时，很明显，它想要接管这个国家。美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)也将地缘政治紧张局势进一步加剧，他给普京贴上了普京总统的标签，称普京的举动“严重误判”。
毫无疑问,战争是不适合俄罗斯,且制裁俄罗斯全球经济可能会产生不利影响。许多人认为，将俄罗斯银行从SWIFT银行体系中剥离只会削弱俄罗斯经济;然而，交易者们担心此举可能会适得其反。
原油
随着俄罗斯和乌克兰的情况继续恶化，油价也在飙升。
我们看到原油价格触及七年来的最高点，而多头们还没有放弃
投入
的心情。
看看价格走势，很明显，
交易者
们非常担心，他们认为
西方
可能会宣布对俄罗斯能源部门，特别是对俄罗斯石油的制裁。
需要强调的是，俄罗斯是一个极其重要的石油生产国，在维持石油供应方面发挥着至关重要的作用。
无论美国及其盟友在向市场释放石油储备方面采取多大的协调行动，对俄罗斯石油实施制裁都将使情况变得更糟。
黄金
黄金需求回升，而这一次金价的波动是巨大的。过去三天，由于地缘政治紧张局势加剧，不确定性继续增加，我们看到了金属价格的积极走势。昨天，我们看到了一个典型的交易现象，交易者将资金从风险较高的资产转移到规避风险的资产，如黄金。尽管近年来黄金饱受批评，但在这样的时期，黄金仍然是最终的避险资产。
交易者们现在很清楚，在战争时期，黄金是终极的避险资产。美联储的货币政策决定仍是影响金价的一个重要因素。鉴于乌克兰的战争局势，交易者现在已开始缩减对美元指数加息的看涨预期。人们普遍认为，美联储在货币政策方面不会像此前预期的那样采取激进立场。
上下滑动阅读文章英文原文
US and European futures continue to trade with massive volatility. It has pretty much become a norm for markets to make a few U-turns in a day as the ongoing war situation in Ukraine is keeping traders on edge. Oil prices don‘t seem to be easing from their recent high level; however, important factors such as Iranian oil coming back on the market sooner than later are under focus. The precious metal is back in demand as traders prefer to place their money in less risky assets, and the Russia and Ukraine war is also having an influence on the central bank’s monetary policy decisions around the globe.
Geopolitical tensions
Russian Army increased its attack on Ukraine over the last 24 hours as towns and cities in the east of Ukraine are now under fire. This is a further moment of uncertainty for traders and investors as everyone is looking at one city, Kyiv. When Russia begins its full force attack on Kyiv, it will be clear that it wants to take over the country. Joe Biden, the US President, has also increased the geopolitical tensions by another notch by labelling President Putin by saying that Putins move was “badly miscalculated .” There is no doubt that war is no good for Russia, and sanctions imposed on Russia are likely to adversely influence the global economy. Many believe that cutting Russian banks from the SWIFT banking system will only weaken the Russian economy; however, the fear among traders is that the move could backfire.
Oil
Oil prices are skyrocketing as Russia, and Ukraines situation continues to become worse. Yesterday, we saw the Crude oil touching its seven-year high, and bulls are in no mood to abandon the ship yet. Looking at the price action, it is very clear that there is serious fear among traders who believe that sanctions are likely to be announced on the Russian energy sector, especially on Russian oil. It is important to emphasize that Russia is an extremely important player as an oil producer, and it plays a vital role in maintaining the oil supply. No matter how big the coordinated action among the US and its allies will be in terms of releasing oil reserves on the market, putting sanctions on Russian oil is going to make matters a lot worse.
Speaking of essential factors, the OPEC meeting is the only significant event that traders will be looking very closely. So far, some OPEC delegates have made it clear that the ongoing Russia and Ukraine situation has no bearing on their current decision. This means Russia continues to remain part of the OPEC+ cartel. It is incredibly difficult to throw Russia out of the OPEC+ cartel, let alone sanction Russian oil. Moreover, if there are any sort of restrictions on Russian oil, Russia will likely offer a deep discount on its oil, and we may see large transactions in the Chinese Yuan. One possible way to fill in the gap in terms of oil supply would be to bring Iran back on the market and allow it to pump as much oil as it can to fill the void. However, looking at the current landscape, it seems difficult to see such a scenario, but hopes are high that we may hear anything meaningful this week. If we do hear from the US that it will lift oil-related sanctions on Iran, we may see oil prices coming off their high. But it is also imperative to keep in mind that allowing Iran to pump oil would mean that there will be restrictions on Russian oil, which may keep the oil prices anchored in place.
Gold
Gold is back in demand, and this time the move in the gold price is substantial. For the past three days, we have seen positive price action for the metal as uncertainty continues to grow due to the heightened geopolitical tensions. Yesterday, we saw a typical trade under which traders moved their money from riskier assets to risk-off assets such as gold. Despite all the criticism about gold in recent years, which gave much popularity to Bitcoin, in times like this, gold is still the ultimate risk-off asset. It is now very much clear to traders that in times of war, gold is the ultimate safe-haven asset. Shifting focus away from war, one factor that is still very dominant on the gold price is the Fed monetary policy decision. Given the war situation in Ukraine, traders have now started to scale back on their bullish bets on the dollar index in terms of rate hikes. It is widely believed that Fed will not take as aggressive a stance towards their monetary policy as they previously anticipated.
Naeem Aslam
AvaTrade 首席分析师
Naeem是一名屡获殊荣的分析师(2010年10月的爱尔兰经纪人奖等)。他能够积极地利用各种市场趋势，分析预判，同时兼具高度的上进心、极强的数字分析能力、人际交往能力，并有能力在专业高度上沟通发表其见解。Naeem的专长包括:投资、投资组合管理、客户服务、合规和法规、股票和债券市场。
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