 微信

【A50 Weekly Report】

来源外汇天眼 12-27 17:29

currentVersion111222170009FFgh_53f99b8548dc致力于打造客户可以长远信赖的财富管理平台Is the market expected to stabilize and rebound

　　currentVersion

　　111

　　222170009FF

　　gh_53f99b8548dc

　　致力于打造客户可以长远信赖的财富管理平台

　　Is the market expected to stabilize and rebound？

　　Opinion: New strains threaten theworld + Taper accelerates as expected. (1) Global epidemic: Among European and Americancountries, the UK has the most severe epidemic at present. Under the highgrowth of epidemic cases, the number of severe illnesses and deaths in Europeanand American countries has increased, but the death rate is not high for thetime being. As of December 24, with the exception of Germany (-15%), the numberof new cases MA7 dropped from a week ago, France (+12%), the United States(+35%), Spain (+36%), and Italy (+32%) ), the United Kingdom (+46%) and othermajor European and American countries, the new epidemic situation continues torise. The number of new outbreaks in the UK has nearly doubled from theprevious year's high (in late July). The new epidemic in South Africa (-25%)eased slightly. According to the latest data (12.24 in the United States, 12.22in the United Kingdom, 12.23 in France), the number of severe cases in theUnited States increased from 177 to 16,100 compared with a week ago, and thenumber of severe cases in France (2832) increased by 376 compared with a weekago. ) A decrease of 406 cases from the previous week. The growth of severecases in the United States has slowed. (2) U.S. economy: The core PCE of theUnited States in November was 4.7% year-on-year, which was higher than marketexpectations and set a new high in nearly 30 years. The Fed may raise interestrates ahead of schedule, and the time for the first rate hike may be advancedto May 2022. If the above judgment depends on inflation trends, if inflation iscontrolled, the Fed can still adapt flexibly.

　　Domestic: (1) Macro liquidity: The relay ofthe policy of stabilizing growth is underway, and it will take time to form ajoint force. It is expected that the data in the fourth quarter will show thetrend of obvious recovery of the domestic economy. The data in the firstquarter of next year will fully reflect the effect of the policy joint force.Confidence will also be fixed quickly. (2) Market liquidity: The volume of Ashares last week was slightly lower than that of last week, but the dailytrading volume has been above one trillion yuan for 46 consecutive tradingdays; incremental capital admission + stock capital adjustment, all flowed to alow Valuation of big blue chips, the new year's market style is obviouslybiased towards the broader market and low blue chip repairs. (3) New SouthAfrican virus strain + repeated domestic epidemics, which will have an impacton market sentiment, weak consumption and sluggish services. However,considering the outstanding domestic epidemic prevention strategies, China willbe used as a safe haven in the previous round of epidemic prevention. Theinflow of foreign capital has increased the liquidity of A shares.

　　Regarding A50, the market was dominated byshocks last week, but the ChiNext fell sharply and market sentiment weakened.The three major sectors of A50 diverged. The food and beverage sector wasstrong, but the banking sector and the non-bank financial sector weakened.However, from a policy perspective: the central government‘s stabilizing growthpolicy and future policy synergy will promote economic recovery beyondexpectations, boost market confidence, and superimpose the new year’s market,with ample market liquidity to support incremental capital relay. From theperspective of valuation, A50 price-to-earnings ratio PE and price-to-bookratio PB are near the average. The index is still expected to continue to riseafter the adjustment. Prudent investors in operation can stay on the sidelines,and activist investors suggest to do more on dips.

　　Figure 1 List of stock indexes ups anddowns since the beginning of the year

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　1.the trend of the plate

　　Figure 1 Trends of the three major sectorsof the FTSE China A50 Index

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Last week, the A50 was dominated by shocks.The banking sector fell 0.9%, non-bank financials fell 1.6%, food and beveragesrose 3.2%, and the A50 futures 2112 contract rose 0.2%.

　　Banking and non-banking financial sectorsare in a valuation depression with little room for decline, while food andbeverages are affected by demand growth at the end of the year and a sharpretracement in the first half of the year, and they do not have the opportunityto continue to fall sharply. At the end of the year, the A50 index has a highprobability of bottoming out and rebounding.

　　2. Funding

　　In terms of public offerings, compared withlast week, the position of equity funds has increased, and the shares of newlyestablished partial equity funds have increased; northbound funds haveaccumulated net outflows compared with last week, and trading activity hasincreased; leveraged funds, compared with last week, the two financial Thebalance scale increased, and transaction activity increased; industrialcapital, industrial capital transaction activity decreased, and leisureservices and comprehensive net holdings were among the top.

　　3. Index valuation

　　In the past five years, the average valueof PE is 13.9 times and the average value of PB is 1.95 times. But since 2019,its valuation has rebounded from a low level and has been rising all the way.It is currently 14.62 times PE, which is near the average; 2.09 times PB, whichis near the 6-year average. Compared with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes, theROE of A50 is larger, and its current value is 14.3.

　　Calculation formula:

　　price-earnings ratioPE(TTM)=1/SUM(Wi/PEi), price-to-book ratio PB(TTM)=1/SUM(Wi/PBi), ROE=PB/PE.

　　Figure 3 PE of each index from 2015 topresent

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Figure 4 A50 price-to-earnings ratio PE

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Figure 5 A50 P/B ratio PB

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　Figure 6 A50 ROE

　　Data source: HGNH International, wind

　　4.trading strategy

　　Unilateral strategy: The market wasdominated by shocks last week, but the ChiNext fell sharply and marketsentiment weakened. The three major sectors of A50 diverged. The food andbeverage sector was strong, but the banking sector and the non-bank financialsector weakened. However, from a policy perspective: the central government‘sstabilizing growth policy and future policy synergy will promote economicrecovery beyond expectations, boost market confidence, and superimpose the newyear’s market, with ample market liquidity to support incremental capitalrelay. From the perspective of valuation, A50 price-to-earnings ratio PE andprice-to-book ratio PB are near the average. The index is still expected tocontinue to rise after the adjustment. Prudent investors in operation can stayon the sidelines, and activist investors suggest to do more on dips.

　　5.this week's focus

　　Table 1 Follow this week

　　Data source: HGNH International, Golden Tendata

　　6.risk warning

　　(1) Domestic policy is looser thanexpected; (2) The overseas new crown epidemic is out of control; (3) The upwardpressure on inflation has increased; (4) The yields of major overseascountries treasury bonds have risen too fast.

　　Disclaimer

　　The information in this report is derived from publicly available information. Although we believe in the reliability of the source of the information in the report, our company does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. Nor does it guarantee that the opinions and suggestions made by our company will not undergo any changes. Under any circumstances, the information in our company‘s report, the opinions and suggestions expressed, and the data, tools and materials contained in it cannot be used as yours. The absolute basis for futures trading. Since the report was compiled with the analyst’s personal views and opinions and analysis methods, any inconsistencies and different conclusions with other information released by HGNH International will not avoid doubts. The views contained in this report do not represent The position of HG

　　*The above content is translated by Google, the information provided is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice, and the Company makes no representations or warranties, direct or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.