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Core point of view:
1. Compared with the Central Economic WorkConferences judgment on the current situation in the fourth quarter monetarypolicy regular meeting, the main differences are: 1) The judgment on theexternal environment suggests the evolution of the global epidemic and theaddition of “more complex, severe and uncertain”, or subject to Theimpact of the recent development of the overseas Omicron epidemic; 2) Thetriple pressure on the domestic economy continues the wording of the CentralEconomic Work Conference, pointing out that the current domestic economicdevelopment is facing three major pressures: demand impulses, supply shocks,and expected weakening.
2. Compared with the Central Economic WorkConference, the regular meeting put forward for the first time “to givefull play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregateand structure, to be more proactive, to increase support for the real economy,and to further increase monetary policy. In addition, the phrase ”maintain thegrowth rate of money supply and the scale of social financing to basicallymatch the nominal economic growth rate, and maintain the basic stability of themacro leverage ratio. Specifically, the aggregate policy is more proactive and the RRR islowered. Interest rate cuts are possible, and structural policies will be animportant starting point for stable growth next year. We judge that thehighlights of structural policies next year are mainly: 1) The conversion oftwo direct monetary policy tools to the real economy to support inclusive smalland micro enterprises and individuals Market-oriented policy tools forindustrial and commercial households; 2) Promote the introduction andimplementation of structural policies, such as carbon emission reductionsupport tools and special refinancing to support the clean and efficient use ofcoal; Support for green development will continue to increase support forrefinancing and rediscounting of small, medium and micro enterprises.
3. For real estate, meeting requirements,safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meetthe reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development andvirtuous circle of the real estate market. Compared with the Central EconomicWork Conference, the new “Better Satisfy Home Buyers” has been added.Reasonable housing demand to promote the healthy development and virtuouscircle of the real estate market indicates that the policy side will further advance the marginalcorrection of real estate. It is reported that the mortgage interest rate ofbanks in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places has been reduced recently. Amongthem, the Shenzhen area has the first set of banks. The interest rates of thetwo sets of mortgage loans were cut by 15BP, and the lending time was shortenedat the same time. It can be seen that the real estate policy is expected tofurther improve in the financial environment such as mortgage loan interestrates and mortgage interest rates. Real estate investment need not be overlypessimistic, and positive growth may be expected throughout the year.
Risk warning: The epidemic exceedsexpectations, the monetary policy is looser than expected, and the changes inthe macro environment exceed expectations
ABrief Comment on the Fourth Quarter Monetary Policy Meeting of the Central Bank
Event: The fourth quarter of 2021 (the 95thin total) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bankof China was held in Beijing on December 24.
1.1. The current economic situation-payattention to the uncertainty of the epidemic and raise three levels of pressure
Regarding the current economic situation,following the judgment of the Central Economic Work Conference, it was pointedout that “the current global epidemic is still evolving, the externalenvironment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, and the domesticeconomic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction,supply shock, and weakening expectations.” . The CentralEconomic Work Conference set the tone for the current economic situation as“The changes in the epidemic and the external environment have many uncertainties,and the foundation of my country's economic recovery is not yet solid. Theworld economic situation next year will remain complex and severe, and therecovery will be unstable and uneven, and the impact of the epidemic will becaused All kinds of derivative risks cannot be ignored”. Comparing thetwo, the main differences are: 1) Judgment of the external environment suggeststhat the global epidemic has evolved and “more complex, severe anduncertain” has been added, or it may be affected by the recent developmentof the overseas Omicron epidemic; 2) The triple impact on the domestic economyThe pressure continues the wording of the Central Economic Work Conference,pointing out that the current domestic economic development is facing threemajor pressures: demand impulse, supply shock, and expected weakening.
1.2. Regarding the setting of thepolicy-stable character, seeking progress while maintaining stability
Regarding policy setting, the meetingpointed out that “we must take the lead with stability, seek progress whilemaintaining stability, intensify cross-cyclical adjustments, combine withcounter-cyclical adjustments, and coordinate the convergence of macroeconomicpolicies this year and the next to support high-quality economic development.” Comparedwith the Central Economic Work Conference, it still uses the general tone ofstabilizing the word and seeking progress while stabilizing, emphasizing thestrengthening of inter-cyclical adjustments, combining with counter-cyclicaladjustments, and focusing on aggregate policies, structural policies, and pricetools. These three levels elaborate on the monetary policy in the next stage.
1.2.1. Total policy-more proactive
Regarding the aggregate policy, the regularmeeting pointed out that “a prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate,strengthen forward-looking, precise, and autonomous, give full play to theaggregate and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, be moreproactive, and increase the level of commitment to entities. Economic support,maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, enhance the stability of totalcredit growth, maintain the growth rate of money supply and social financingscale to basically match the nominal economic growth rate, maintain the basic stabilityof the macro leverage ratio, and enhance the resilience of economicdevelopment. Stabilize the macroeconomic market.” Compared with theCentral Economic Work Conference, it was proposed for the first time to“play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in aggregate andstructure, be more proactive, and increase support for the real economy.Monetary policy is expected to further increase. In addition, the phrase”maintain the growth rate of the money supply and the scale of social financingbasically match the nominal economic growth rate, and maintain the basicstability of the macro leverage ratio.“ The basic matching of economicgrowth as the latest intermediary target of monetary policy is a long-termadjustment mechanism. According to the central banks statementon the monetary policy framework, this intermediary target anchoring method isconducive to the design of inter-cyclical policies and guides the market toform rational and stable expectations. , And a mechanism for stabilizing themacro leverage ratio is embedded. And ”maintainingreasonable and abundant liquidity and enhancing the stability of total creditgrowth is placed before the policy intermediary target, and it isstraightforward to point out the importance of this policy target. .
1.2.2. Structural policy-Actively doa good job in “addition”, and use precise force
Regarding structural policies, the regularmeeting pointed out that “structural monetary policy tools should be actively”additive“, and precise efforts should be made to convert the twodirect monetary policy tools to the real economy into market-oriented policiesthat support inclusive small and micro enterprises and individual industrialand commercial households. Implement carbon emission reduction support toolsand support special refinancing for the clean and efficient use of coal,comprehensively implement policies to support coordinated regional development,and guide financial institutions to increase support for small and microenterprises, technological innovation, and green development.” Therefore,we judge that the highlights of structural policies next year are mainly: 1)Two direct monetary policy tools to the real economy are converted intomarket-oriented policy tools that support inclusive small and micro enterprisesand individual industrial and commercial households; 2) Promote theintroduction of structural policies And implementation, such as carbon emissionreduction support tools and special re-lending to support the clean andefficient use of coal; 3) guide financial institutions to increase support forsmall and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development,and continue to increase re-lending and re-lending to small and microenterprises. Support for discounts. On the whole, the requirements forstructural monetary policy are to do a good job of addition and use preciseforce. Structural monetary policy will be an important force tool for stablegrowth in the future.
1.2.3. Price-based tools-improve themarket-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism
In addition, the regular meeting alsopointed out, Improve the market-based interest rate formation and transmissionmechanism, optimize the central banks policy interestrate system, strengthen the supervision of deposit interest rates, give fullplay to the effectiveness of the reform of the loan market quoted interestrate, and promote the reduction of the comprehensive financing costs ofenterprises. Deepen the reform of exchange rate marketization. Enhance theflexibility of the RMB exchange rate, guide enterprises and financialinstitutions to adhere to the concept of “risk neutrality”,strengthen anticipation management, grasp the balance between internal andexternal equilibrium, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rateat a reasonable and balanced level. Judging from the wording of theregular meeting, it is proposed to promote the reduction of comprehensivefinancing costs for enterprises. In the first and second quarters of next year,it is expected that the RRR cuts to reduce bank liabilities, the reduction ofdeposit liability interest rates, and the replenishment of capital for banks,especially small and medium-sized banks, will be measures. The policy focuseson the point of force, and it is also possible to cut interest rates (lower theMLF interest rate).
1.3. Currency flow-supportingmanufacturing and dual carbon, real estate continues to correct marginaldeviations
Build a financial system to effectivelysupport the real economy, improve the financial support innovation system,guide financial institutions to increase mid- and long-term loans tomanufacturing, and strive to make financial support for private enterprisescompatible with their contribution to economic and social development topromote realization The goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is toimprove the green financial system. Protect the legitimate rights and interestsof housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, andpromote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market.Promote high-level two-way opening up of finance, and improve economic andfinancial management capabilities and the ability to prevent and control risksunder open conditions.
Regarding the flow of loans, the regularmeeting proposes to guide financial institutions to increase mid- and long-termloans to the manufacturing industry, maintain the same focus on the previousstructural policies, and continue to be optimistic about the development ofmanufacturing, especially high-end manufacturing and green manufacturing.
For real estate, the meeting required tosafeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, to bettermeet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and to promote the healthydevelopment and virtuous circle of the real estate market. Demand, promote thehealthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market, indicatingthat the policy side will further advance the marginal correction of realestate. It is reported that the mortgage loan interest rate of banks inShenzhen and Guangzhou has been reduced recently. Among them, the Shenzhen areahas the first set of banks and the second set of banks. Mortgage loan interestrates are all lowered by 15BP, and the loan time is shortened at the same time.It can be seen that the real estate policy is expected to further improve thefinancial environment such as mortgage loan interest rates and mortgageinterest rates. From the policy statement, the marginal correction in the realestate sector is expected to be further strengthened, and real estateinvestment next year Don't be overly pessimistic, positive growth may beexpected throughout the year.
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