No 675 - No ＂reopening trade＂

　　原创

　　BANDSFinancial

　　磐石金融有限公司（ BANDS Financial Limited ）在香港注册成立，是一家持有香港证监会（SFC）2号牌照的期货经纪公司，业务涉及中国以外全球大部分活跃期货及期权市场。

　　At the risk of repeating myself, yesterday I outlined that “China continues to ramp up its vaccination program which reached a new high as it administered 14 million injections on Sunday. Delivered inoculations total 407 million which is roughly 29 in 100 people. Local statistics do not specifically reveal how many citizens have completed the two-dose requirement and can be considered fully vaccinated.” I went on to say that “Beijing has 21.9 million people and has administered 27.9 million doses i.e. 127.6 doses per 100 occupants. Shanghai has 24.9 million people and has administered 20.5 million doses i.e. 82.5 doses per 100 occupants. However, the provinces of Hunan, Shaanxi, Guangxi and Shanxi with a total population of 190 million remain vulnerable as less than 16 doses per 100 people have been administered in each province.” So while the most influential urban conurbations are embracing vaccination the rural and remote regions are far behind.If we look elsewhere, at 60% Israel has the highest completed vaccination rate followed by Chile‘s 40%, the United States at 36% and Britain at 30%. But some advanced economies are woefully behind. New Zealand which so far has successfully employed an isolationist policy is low at 2.5%. Japan is a terrifying 1.37% which makes hosting the Olympic Games in Tokyo in late July similar to a national game of Russian roulette.However, amongst the economic data released last week, China’s retail sales unexpectedly missed expectations. China's retail trade rose by 17.7% year-on-year in April, easing from a 34.2% jump in March but far below the market consensus of a 24.9% growth. In China, the man in the street is fully aware of the recent situation in India, or the reimposition of lockdown in Taiwan or Singapore. Therefore, with the current vaccination rates in China, although the incidence of Covid is low, there is no incentive to go on as pending binge.China Gross Savings Rate was measured in Dec 2019, at 44.2% of GDP and although that may have shifted down in 2020 it is probably safe to assume that it is recovering as we go into 2021, therefore it is possible to argue that in China there is not a “reopening trade” and that Chinese domestic consumption may continue to underwhelm in coming months.Today Im participating in the FOW hosted virtual European Derivatives Conference as a panellist in a slot entitled “China testing of prototypes; all eyes look to Asia” (12.15 -13.15 UK, 19.15 – 20.15 Shanghai). If you want to ask me some questions on the proposed Chinese Futures Law, this is your opportunity. The link to the event is below, I hope to see you there.

　　https://financial.us18.list-manage.com/track/click？u=42dcd87cef452a54c983e2a10&id=64f45a2d38&e=b36a044d1c

　　Have a good day

　　Joh