No 660 - In splendid isolation

　　BANDSFinancial

　　磐石金融有限公司（ BANDS Financial Limited ）在香港注册成立，是一家持有香港证监会（SFC）2号牌照的期货经纪公司，业务涉及中国以外全球大部分活跃期货及期权市场。

　　Overnight all three main US stock indices fell following reports that President Biden will propose almost doubling capital gains tax, and we can add to that an increasingly ill-formed definition of what a post coronavirus world will look like, indeed if there will ever be such a thing.Yesterday India recorded the highest ever one-day infection increase of above 332,000. Reports from Delhi confirm a shortage of oxygen with some hospitals running out entirely. The imposition of quarantine and lockdown should suppress the virus from this point, however, the central government has been sending conflicting messages hoping that vaccination would suppress transmission and for the economy to remain open before a second wave arrives. Indeed, although a more virulent strain of the infection may be at work, the government's reluctance to lockdown has meant that crowds have flocked to sporting, political and religious events in huge numbers. The government has been criticised for permitting the Kumbh Mela the Hindu religious festival in the northern city of Haridwar, which attracted over 5 million largely non-mask wearing Hindu pilgrims to the banks of the Ganges River. Following these super spreader events, the second wave now grips the country as the vaccination plan is far short of critical mass.Reporting only a few cases per day and a total of 102k cases since records started, China remains in insolation and is likely to remain so for some considerable time. The absence of foreigners is becoming visible. The foreigner population in Shanghai has probably fallen by half in the last year, to around 100k. In the smaller provincial cities, I can imagine the numbers offoreigners to be zero, punctuated by a single English language teacher here and there. Chinese tax changes due in January will finally remove the privileges of those foreigners still holding “old fashioned” employment contracts that pay for children's education or subsidise the cost of rent etc. These gifts in kind will be taxed, as indeed they are in other countries. Already I‘m hearing of families that will be gone by Christmas, therefore I expect the numbers of foreigners in Shanghai to continue to fall. Even in the unlikely event inbound quarantine restrictions are removed, it is unlikely a newly arrived foreigner could leave their hotel. China’s increasing reliance on mobile apps only available on Chinese registered phones linked to Chinese bank accounts means a newly arrived foreigner could not order a taxi and certainly be unable to pay for it.Have a good weekend

　　Joh